Drafted premarket Wednesday, October 28, before the opening bell, after Tuesday’s close.
S&P 500 +0.60% · Nasdaq +1.18% · Dow +0.03% — Tuesday’s closes, percent only (Robinhood index quote; Stocktwits).
Micron is up 3.98% in extended hours after SK Hynix’s quarterly profit jumped more than sevenfold (Reuters), Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.41% at 4:53 AM ET while Dow futures fell 0.17% — and that is only the warm-up: the Federal Reserve decides at 2 PM ET today, and Microsoft and Alphabet put the AI trade on trial after the close.
The setup. Tuesday was another tech-led advance: the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60 (Robinhood index quote), the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.18% to 26,477.81 and the Dow edged up 0.03% to 52,377.57 (Stocktwits), with Robinhood’s ETF closes agreeing — SPY $769.72 (+0.57%), QQQ $721.24 (+1.27%) and DIA $523.26 (+0.06%). Broadcom’s $63 billion bank financing to buy chips for Anthropic powered the chip complex on Tuesday (FXStreet), while Boeing’s 10.70% plunge capped the Dow. Wednesday morning the split widens: at 4:53 AM ET, Dow E-minis were down 88 points (-0.17%), S&P 500 E-minis up 7.25 points (+0.10%) and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up 122 points (+0.41%) (Reuters). Treasury yields are the headwind nobody can ignore — the 10-year rose back above 5% and the 30-year traded close to 5.32% ahead of the decision (WSJ). Crypto is firmer: Bitcoin’s Robinhood mark was $81,259.48 on Wednesday morning, back above $80,000, and Ether’s mark was $2,359.68. The VIX sat at 17.50.
Why it moved. Tuesday’s Mag 7 (Robinhood official closes): Tesla $407.46 (+4.04%) paced the group again, Amazon $253.16 (+1.63%), Alphabet $320.56 (+1.19%), Apple $347.08 (+0.92%) and Nvidia $217.92 (+0.89%) followed, while Microsoft $531.60 (-0.19%) and Meta $620.12 (-1.66%) fell. Wednesday premarket is a chip story (Robinhood extended hours vs Tuesday’s closes): Micron $966.20 (+3.98%) after South Korean rival SK Hynix reported a more than sevenfold jump in quarterly profit — SK Hynix’s US-listed shares jumped 7.8% (Reuters) — with Western Digital +1.88% and AMD +1.80% alongside; Seagate is the outlier, -1.90% in extended hours after its first-quarter results (Reuters had it down 3.7% earlier in the premarket). Alphabet is up 1.26% in extended hours after a media report that OpenAI plans to buy Google’s AI chips (Reuters), Nvidia is up 0.89%, and Microsoft sits -0.57% ahead of its own print tonight. Tonight’s verdicts — Microsoft and Alphabet after the close, with accelerating cloud growth expected and capital-expenditure plans under the microscope (Reuters) — decide whether the AI spending boom gets another leg.
Wednesday’s earnings. Before the open, the beats stacked up (Robinhood earnings calendar): Vertiv $2.21 vs $1.82 estimated, GE Vernova $4.81 vs $4.02, Garmin $2.76 vs $2.38, Etsy $1.00 vs $0.76, Phillips 66 $14.08 vs $11.83 and ADP $2.82 vs $2.77; Lennox missed, $6.84 vs $7.32, and United Microelectronics missed, $0.206 vs $0.23. After the close Wednesday: Microsoft ($4.72 estimated), Alphabet ($2.99), KLA ($1.18), ServiceNow ($0.93), Fortinet ($0.84), Equinix ($9.28), eBay ($1.35), FedEx ($3.36), Chipotle ($0.29), Carvana ($0.44) and Ford ($0.40). Amazon follows Thursday after the close ($1.97 estimated), the same day US GDP and PCE inflation data land.
What to watch today. The Fed decides at 2:00 PM ET: a hold at 3.75%–4.00% is widely expected (about 90.6% odds on CME FedWatch, FXStreet), so Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference — and any signal on December, where FXStreet notes pricing for a hike — is the real event (WSJ; FXStreet). Then whether the Nasdaq’s chip-led premarket gain (+0.41% at 4:53 AM ET, Reuters) survives the decision, and Microsoft and Alphabet after the close — with Amazon and GDP/PCE on Thursday.
The OnDeck Book
Trading day change +3.39% and Agentic +0.47% (Tuesday session, percent only, Robinhood) vs the S&P 500’s +0.60%, the Nasdaq Composite’s +1.18% and the Dow’s +0.03%; Wednesday premarket, extended-hours equity is +0.39% for Trading and -0.12% for Agentic vs Tuesday’s core close (this run’s Robinhood pulls). Positions (Tuesday official closes, Robinhood): SPCX 150 shares, avg $132.13, close $148.59 (+1.15% on Tuesday), +12.46% vs avg cost, unrealized +$2,468.97 — $149.31 in extended hours Wednesday (+0.48%). SOFI 200 shares, avg $17.10, close $16.395 (+13.38%), -4.11% vs avg, unrealized -$140.50 — $16.525 in extended hours (+0.79%). QUBT 700 shares, avg $8.21, close $6.885 (+7.41%), -16.14% vs avg, unrealized -$927.50 — $6.97 in extended hours (+1.23%). Options (marks at Tuesday’s close, Robinhood; total option market value $4,819, matching the portfolio pull): SPCX $152.50 calls expiring TODAY, Wed Oct 28 — 6 long, clearing cost $1,038 total ($1.73 per share) vs a $0.52 mark, market value $312.00 — expiring today; NVDA $215 calls expiring Wed Nov 4 — 2 long, clearing cost $880 total ($4.40 per share) vs a $6.18 mark, market value $1,236.00; NVDA $217.50 calls expiring Wed Nov 4 — 2 long, clearing cost $934 total ($4.67 per share) vs a $4.70 mark, market value $940.00; SPCX $148 calls expiring Fri Nov 6 — 3 long, clearing cost $1,690 total ($5.63 per share) vs a $5.45 mark, market value $1,635.00; SPCX $152.50 calls expiring Fri Nov 6 — 2 long, clearing cost $800 total ($4.00 per share) vs a $3.48 mark, market value $696.00. The NVDA Oct 28 calls from Tuesday morning’s brief were closed on Tuesday (see Tuesday’s tape). Futures: none — fully closed Oct 22 (web-verified); API aggregate futures market value $0. Crypto: ETH 3.6 coins, clearing cost basis $8,608.00, mark $2,359.68 (Robinhood crypto quote, ~7:20 AM ET), indicative value $8,494.86; USDG 1.0 unit on the API spot line (total incl. Crypto Earn last web-verified Oct 15 at 102.88 units); dust: CC 1.0, DOGE 1.0, USDC 0.00993.
Account totals at the pull: total equity $63,277.71, core portfolio equity $54,563.82 (extended-hours equity $54,777.90), buying power $35,122.97, cash $19,357.82.