Drafted premarket Monday, October 26, before the opening bell, after Friday’s close.
S&P 500 -0.5% · Nasdaq -0.2% · Dow -1.2% — Friday’s closes (S&P 500 7,624, Nasdaq Composite 25,955, Dow 52,215). Index closes: NordFX morning update.
The setup. Friday was a controlled slide, not a rout: the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,624, the Dow fell 1.2% to 52,215 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2% to 25,955. Robinhood’s official ETF closes agree: SPY $759.85 (-0.54%), QQQ $704.39 (-0.01%), DIA $521.40 (-1.23%). The weekend changed the oil story — Brent had closed Friday at $116.72 after a weekly gain of more than 6%, then fell back toward $114.85 late Sunday and was trading near $109.50 early Monday in Europe, down about 6.2% from the settle, after President Trump said there would be no strike on Iran on Sunday (TickerRoast, citing Yahoo Finance). Futures followed the oil relief: at 5:19 AM ET, Dow futures were up 257 points (+0.49%), S&P 500 futures up 23.25 points (+0.30%) and Nasdaq 100 futures up 73 points (+0.25%) (Reuters). The 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 5%, to about 4.97% (TickerRoast).
Why it moved. Oil was the switch, and the Mag 7 tells the story underneath it. Friday’s closes (Robinhood official closes): Microsoft $524.53 (+0.66%) was the group’s only green close; Nvidia $211.00 (-0.57%), Tesla $372.22 (-0.63%), Amazon $248.05 (-0.93%), Meta $642.26 (-1.02%), Alphabet $320.27 (-1.22%) and Apple $347.72 (-0.14%). Monday premarket, Tesla is leading the advance, up 2.1% (Reuters) — Robinhood extended hours put it at $379.00, +1.82% vs Friday’s close. The neoclouds are not bouncing: CoreWeave and Nebius fell around 3% premarket after losing more than 30% of their market value this month (Reuters). Crypto sat the relief out: Bitcoin’s mark was $80,167.16 and Ether’s $2,322.26 early Monday (Robinhood, 7:17 AM ET).
Monday’s earnings. Verizon beat before the open ($1.31 vs $1.27 estimated), Cemex beat ($0.28 vs $0.22) and Alliance Resource crushed it ($1.08 vs $0.82); Bank of Hawaii just missed ($1.49 vs $1.51) (Robinhood earnings calendar). After the close: Cadence Design Systems ($1.96 estimated), Nucor ($5.80), Welltower ($0.90), Public Storage ($4.27) and Hartford ($3.17).
What to watch today. All session: whether Brent holds near $109.50 after Friday’s $116.72 close, and whether the Dow futures’ +0.49% premarket gain holds the cash open. After the close: Cadence Design Systems and Nucor report, the first prints of a week where about one-third of the S&P 500 reports (Reuters). Wednesday, October 28: the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, plus Alphabet and Microsoft earnings after the close; Amazon follows Thursday (Reuters; MarketChameleon).
The OnDeck Book
Trading day change -1.37% and Agentic -0.72% (Friday session, Robinhood). Positions (Friday official closes, Robinhood): SPCX 150 shares, avg $132.13, close $147.50 (+1.90%), +11.63% vs avg cost, unrealized +$2,304.72. SOFI 200 shares, avg $17.10, close $14.62 (-1.05%), -14.52% vs avg, unrealized -$496.50. QUBT 700 shares, avg $8.21, close $6.56 (-0.53%), -20.16% vs avg, unrealized -$1,158.50. Options (marks at Friday's close, Robinhood): SPCX $152.50 calls expiring Oct 28 — 11 long, clearing cost $1,960 total ($1.78 per share) vs a $1.53 mark, market value $1,683.00; NVDA $215 calls expiring Oct 28 — 20 long, clearing cost $5,380 total ($2.69 per share) vs a $1.89 mark, market value $3,780.00; NVDA $215 calls expiring Nov 4 — 2 long, clearing cost $880 total ($4.40 per share) vs a $3.90 mark, market value $780.00; SPCX $148 calls expiring Nov 6 — 2 long, clearing cost $1,100 total ($5.50 per share) vs a $5.98 mark, market value $1,196.00. Futures: none — fully closed Oct 22 (web-verified); API aggregate futures market value $0. Crypto: ETH 3.6 coins, clearing cost basis $8,608.00, mark $2,322.26 (Robinhood crypto quote, ~7:20 AM ET), indicative value $8,360.14 — the position rose from 1.6 coins over the weekend (added cost basis $4,691.02, matching the cash drop vs Friday's tape pull); dust: DOGE 1.0, USDC 0.00993, CC 1.0.
Account totals at the pull: total equity $59,722.26, core portfolio equity $51,363.96 vs a $51,297.42 adjusted prior close (Monday premarket change +$66.54, +0.13%, transfer-adjusted), buying power $29,944.47, cash $14,289.21.
Updated Oct 28 with verified figures.