Drafted premarket Friday, October 23, before the opening bell, after Thursday’s close.
S&P 500 -1.21% · Nasdaq -2.60% · Dow +0.02% — Thursday’s official closes (S&P 500 7,663.43, Nasdaq Composite 26,008.86). Index closes: TipRanks; Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 22.
The setup — the AI bill coming due. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 — its worst day since June — and the S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,663.43, its biggest daily loss since July, while the Dow edged up 0.02%. The trigger was not bad earnings: Meta beat and still fell, leaving capex guidance unchanged with little color on future plans, and Tesla cut its full-year capex guide by 20% — flipping the fear from “spending too much” to “the AI investment boom may have peaked” (TheStreet, quoting Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda). Friday futures are trying to stabilize: at 6:35 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were 7,688 (-0.2%), Dow futures 52,749 (-0.6%) and Nasdaq 100 futures 29,139 (-0.01%) (Summa Money). Robinhood extended hours at ~7:17 AM ET agree: SPY $762.14 (-0.24%), QQQ $703.99 (-0.09%), DIA $524.91 (-0.56%). Investors hid in Treasurys on Thursday — the 10-year yield dropped 18.5 basis points to 4.961% (TipRanks).
The Mag 7 — only Apple closed green. At Thursday’s official closes (Robinhood): Meta $648.87 (-6.97%), Amazon $250.48 (-4.53%), Nvidia $212.29 (-4.36%), Alphabet $324.22 (-3.15%), Tesla $374.57 (-3.08%), Microsoft $521.64 (-2.12%) — and Apple $348.32 (+1.26%), the group’s only green close. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 6.72%, its worst day since June, and CoreWeave fell 10.06% to its lowest since May 2025 (FXStreet, citing Deutsche Bank). In Friday extended hours (~7:17 AM ET), Nvidia $212.91 (+0.29%) and Tesla $375.15 (+0.15%) are inching back while Meta $645.40 (-0.53%) and Microsoft $518.70 (-0.56%) are still leaking — stabilization, not a bounce.
Oil — the second front. Brent settled Thursday at $113.17, up 4.0% — its highest close since May 4 — after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and climbed another 1.2% to $114.47 early Friday (Reuters). WTI settled at $99.47 (+2.4%). Crypto went risk-off with equities: Bitcoin mark $81,522.82 and Ether mark $2,394.25 (Robinhood crypto quotes, ~7:17 AM ET), down 2.8% and 2.6% over 24 hours (CoinGecko via CoinStats).
This morning’s earnings. American Express beat ($4.68 vs $4.49 estimated), SLB beat ($0.64 vs $0.62), Booz Allen Hamilton beat ($1.76 vs $1.47) and First Citizens crushed it ($55.37 vs $46.11); Infosys missed ($0.20 vs $0.21) (Robinhood earnings calendar, Oct 23).
What to watch today:
- Fri Oct 23, 9:45 AM ET — flash manufacturing PMI
- Later this morning — final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading
- All session — whether QQQ holds Thursday’s $704.59 close area after the cash open, and whether Brent over $114 turns a tech story into an inflation story
The OnDeck Book
Positions (Thursday official closes, Robinhood): SPCX 150 shares, avg $132.13, close $144.75 (-9.14% on the day), +9.55% vs avg cost, unrealized +$1,892.22. SOFI 200 shares, avg $17.10, close $14.78 (-0.81%), -13.55% vs avg, unrealized -$463.50. QUBT 700 shares, avg $8.21, close $6.60 (-3.30%), -19.67% vs avg, unrealized -$1,130.50. HD was sold out Thursday (see Thursday's tape). Options (marks at Thursday's close, Robinhood): SPCX $152.50 calls expiring Oct 28 — 16 long, clearing cost $3,345 total ($2.09 per share) vs a $1.65 mark, market value $2,640.00; NVDA $215 calls expiring Oct 28 — 10 long, clearing cost $3,345 total ($3.35 per share) vs a $3.01 mark, market value $3,010.00; SPCX $148 calls expiring Nov 6 — 2 long, clearing cost $1,100 total ($5.50 per share) vs a $5.45 mark, market value $1,090.00. Futures: none — the /METV26 position was fully closed Thursday (web-verified on robinhood.com, 2026-10-22); API aggregate futures market value $0. Crypto: ETH 1.6 coins, clearing cost basis $3,916.98, mark $2,394.25 (Robinhood crypto quote, ~7:17 AM ET), indicative value $3,830.80; USDG 102.881882 units total including Crypto Earn (web holdings verification, 2026-10-15); dust: DOGE 1.0, USDC 0.00993.
Account totals at the pull: total equity $60,937.47, core portfolio equity $56,840.19 vs a $57,671.33 adjusted prior close (day change -$831.14, -1.44%), buying power $36,480.93, cash $20,815.94. Agentic day change 0.00% (Robinhood).
Updated Oct 28 with verified figures.