Drafted premarket Thursday, October 22, before the opening bell, after Wednesday’s close.
S&P 500 -1.10% · Nasdaq 100 -1.93% · Dow -0.69% — overnight futures vs Wednesday's closes (S&P 500 7,757.17, Nasdaq Composite 26,702.86, Dow 52,856.09). Percents: Reuters futures, 4:56 AM ET; index closes: WSJ, Oct 21.
The setup — beats were not enough. Meta topped estimates on $64.60 billion of revenue and Tesla beat on both lines — $0.48 adjusted EPS vs $0.43 expected, $28.05 billion of revenue vs $27.88 billion expected (LSEG via CNBC) — and futures still rolled over. Meta created a new class of non-voting shares to help fund its AI push, and Tesla's GAAP net income fell 43% to $787 million (Reuters; Morningstar/Dow Jones Newswires). The question flipped overnight from what AI earns to what AI costs.
The Mag 7 — every name red before the bell. In Robinhood extended hours (~7:17 AM ET), Tesla traded $373.30 (-3.43%) vs its $386.56 close, Meta $682.29 (-2.31%), Alphabet $327.41 (-2.17%), Nvidia $217.47 (-1.98%), Amazon $257.71 (-1.77%), Microsoft $528.30 (-0.85%) and Apple $343.05 (-0.29%). Chips led the slide: Lam Research -7.31% in extended hours after soft guidance, and SpaceX $155.89 (-2.13%) a day after its first profit as a public company.
Oil — the second headline. Brent crude climbed more than 3% to $112 a barrel, near a five-month high, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked supply fears (Reuters). A flight to safety pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to around 5.085% (Reuters). Crypto went risk-off with it: Bitcoin $81,881.83 (-1.18%) vs its session open and Ether $2,401.15 (-1.70%) (Robinhood crypto quotes, ~7:17 AM ET).
Earnings — defense and staples carried the morning. Lockheed Martin beat ($7.97 vs $7.51 estimated), Valero crushed it ($23.90 vs $21.20), Procter & Gamble beat ($2.00 vs $1.89), Honeywell beat ($2.27 vs $2.17) and American Airlines lost less than feared (-$0.28 vs -$0.35); Spotify missed ($2.85 vs $3.11) (Robinhood earnings calendar, Oct 22).
What to watch today:
- Thu Oct 22, 8:30 AM ET — initial jobless claims (consensus 200K, prior 199K)
- Thu Oct 22, after the close — Western Digital, Newmont and Deckers report
- All session — whether Brent holds over $112 and turns a tech story into an inflation story
The OnDeck Book
Trading day change +8.90% and Agentic +0.01% (Wednesday session, Robinhood). Positions (Wednesday official closes, Robinhood): SPCX 150 shares, avg $132.13, close $159.28 (+7.77% on the day), +20.55% vs avg cost, unrealized +$4,072.47. HD 30 shares, avg $293.92, close $314.08 (-0.33%), +6.86% vs avg, unrealized +$604.85. SOFI 200 shares, avg $17.10, close $14.91 (+1.53%), -12.82% vs avg, unrealized -$438.50. QUBT 700 shares, avg $8.21, close $6.83 (+5.08%), -16.81% vs avg, unrealized -$966.00. Options (marks at Wednesday's close, Robinhood): SPCX $152.50 calls expiring Oct 28 — 1 long, clearing cost $4.65 per share ($465 total) vs an $8.83 mark, market value $883.00. Futures: API aggregate futures market value $3,285.50 (the /METV26 position was still open at this pull). Crypto: ETH 1.6 coins, clearing cost basis $3,916.98, mark $2,401.15 (Robinhood crypto quote, ~7:17 AM ET), indicative value $3,841.84; USDG 102.881882 units total including Crypto Earn (web holdings verification, 2026-10-15; the API spot line shows only 1.0 unit); dust: DOGE 1.0, USDC 0.00993.
Account totals at the pull: total equity $60,185.97, core portfolio equity $57,691.78 vs a $52,978.04 adjusted prior close (day change +$4,713.74), buying power $35,651.73, cash $15,114.38.
Updated Oct 28 with verified figures.