Drafted premarket Tuesday, October 20, before the opening bell, after Monday’s rebound.
Monday's rebound lifted the Nasdaq 100 ETF 1.20% — this morning Brent crude sits at $110.07, a five-month high, Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.46% on AI debt fears, and tonight Netflix and SpaceX deliver the first verdicts of earnings week.
Futures are mixed-to-lower after Monday's rebound. As of 5:34 AM ET (TipRanks): Nasdaq 100 futures -0.46%, S&P 500 futures -0.07% and Dow futures +0.22%. The drag is the AI complex again — debt-funded AI buildout worries pushed CoreWeave to a 52-week low (TipRanks), and in Robinhood extended-hours prints (~7:19 AM ET) CRWV traded $58.35 (-4.52% vs its Monday close), MU $880.68 (-2.72%), INTC $90.35 (-1.76%), NVDA $215.80 (-0.59%) and QQQ $714.12 (-0.58%). Oil is the other headwind: Brent crude futures rose 0.47% to $110.07 a barrel by 0628 GMT, hovering near a five-month high ($110.70 on Monday, the highest since May 20) as Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure kept a geopolitical risk premium in the market (Reuters); WTI November futures were $104.03 (+0.36%). Monday's official closes (Robinhood equity quotes) set the bar the session has to defend: SPY $766.54 (+0.43%), QQQ $718.32 (+1.20%) and DIA $518.99 (-0.02%). The Mag 7 mostly bounced — AMZN $262.44 (+4.97%), TSLA $368.09 (+3.77%), NVDA $217.09 (+1.38%), GOOGL $344.20 (+1.06%) and MSFT $533.61 (+0.86%) — while META $704.95 (-0.62%) and AAPL $342.97 (-0.14%) lagged. Crypto faded with risk: BTC mark $81,411.87 (-0.76% vs its session open) and ETH mark $2,381.38 (-1.28%), Robinhood crypto quotes at 7:19 AM ET.
This morning's earnings are a clean sweep of beats so far (Robinhood earnings calendar, Oct 20, pre-open reports): Northrop Grumman (NOC) $7.89 vs a $7.19 estimate, RTX $2.26 vs $1.78, Hasbro (HAS) $2.90 vs $1.85, GE Aerospace (GE) $2.25 vs $2.01, GM $3.70 vs $3.61, 3M (MMM) $2.50 vs $2.39, Equifax (EFX) $2.26 vs $2.20 and Halliburton (HAL) $0.60 vs $0.58. Extended-hours trade is not rewarding all of them — GM printed $78.92 (-4.59% vs its $82.72 Monday close) and GE $306.71 (-1.48%) in Robinhood extended-hours prints — so guidance, not the headline EPS, is doing the talking. After today's close comes the week's first main event: Netflix (NFLX, est $0.82; the stock is down about 26% year-to-date into the print, TipRanks) and SpaceX (SPCX, est $0.16), plus United Airlines (UAL, est $2.59), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG, est $2.54), Capital One (COF, est $5.49) and Chubb (CB, est $6.74). Wednesday after the close: Meta (est $5.89) and Tesla (est $0.40). Levels to watch: QQQ closed $718.32 with extended trade at $714.12 — holding Monday's close is the rebound's first test; NVDA closed $217.09, extended $215.80, with Friday's $214.13 close below that; Brent at $110.07 — a push through Monday's $110.70 high adds pressure to everything rate- and fuel-sensitive. Watch today: whether the chip slide (CRWV, MU, INTC all red premarket) drags QQQ under its Monday close in the first hour, and whether Brent holds above $110 into the Netflix and SpaceX prints after the close.
The OnDeck Book
Account total equity $43,254.52, core portfolio equity $38,875.64 vs a $37,429.17 adjusted prior close (Monday session day change +$1,446.47, +3.86%), buying power $13,919.19, cash -$6,145.91, options market value $7,085.00 and API futures market value $7,452.75 (Robinhood portfolio pull, 7:18 AM ET; the API exposes futures only as this aggregate). Positions (official Oct 19 closes, Robinhood): SPCX 150 shares, avg cost $132.1302, closed $147.971 (+1.33% on the day, +11.99% vs avg cost), equity $22,195.65, extended-hours $146.07; HD 30 shares, avg cost $293.9184, closed $309.99 (+0.12%, +5.47% vs avg cost), equity $9,299.70, extended-hours $311.90; SOFI 200 shares, avg cost $17.0975, closed $14.295 (-1.75%, -16.39% vs avg cost), equity $2,859.00, extended-hours $14.13; QUBT 700 shares, avg cost $8.21, closed $6.445 (+1.34%, -21.50% vs avg cost), equity $4,511.50, extended-hours $6.29. Options — all long SPCX calls (Robinhood option positions + quotes, marks as of Oct 19 close): 3x 148C expiring Friday, Oct 23 (3 days), clearing cost $5.16/contract ($1,548 total) vs a $6.00 adjusted mark, market value $1,800.00, delta 0.520967; 6x 155C expiring Friday, Oct 23 (3 days), clearing cost $2.30/contract ($1,380 total) vs a $3.15 adjusted mark, market value $1,890.00, delta 0.33968; 7x 152.5C expiring Oct 28 (8 days), clearing cost $4.7143/contract ($3,300 total) vs a $4.85 adjusted mark, market value $3,395.00, delta 0.420981. The Oct 23 lines were trimmed on Oct 19 (from 12x/24x in Monday morning's brief to 3x/6x) and the 152.5C line was opened Oct 19. Futures: /METV26 (Micro Ether, Oct 2026; last trade Oct 30, 2026) long 65 contracts, avg 2,549.89 — web-verified baseline (robinhood.com, 2026-10-14; quantity/avg re-verified 2026-10-15), reported alongside the API aggregate futures market value of $7,452.75 above. Crypto: ETH 1.6 coins, clearing cost basis $3,916.98, mark $2,381.38 (Robinhood crypto quote, 7:19 AM ET), indicative value $3,810.21; USDG 102.881882 units total including Crypto Earn (web holdings verification, 2026-10-15; the API spot line shows only 1.0 unit); dust: DOGE 1.0, USDC 0.00993, ETH spot dust ~0.000001. SPCX note: SpaceX reports earnings today, Oct 20, after the close (est $0.16, Robinhood earnings calendar); Deutsche Bank weighed in on whether the stock jumps or tumbles after earnings (TipRanks via Robinhood news, Oct 19).
The account scoreboard for Monday’s session, day change against adjusted prior closes (Robinhood): Trading +3.86%, Agentic +19.57%.